Temporal-spatial analysis of hospitalizations for bronchiolitis in Brazil: prediction of epidemic regions and periods for immunization against the Respiratory Syncytial Virus.

OBJECTIVE: Due to the high cost and short term of passive immunization against the respiratory syncytial virus, the main virus causing acute viral bronchiolitis, predicting epidemic regions and epidemic months is extremely important. The objective of this study is to identify both the month when the seasonal peak begins and Brazilian regions and states with the highest incidence of monthly hospitalizations due acute viral bronchiolitis. METHODS: Based on data obtained from DATASUS, monthly hospitalization rates due acute viral bronchiolitis were calculated for every 10,000 live births to children under 12 months of age in all Brazilian states and the Federal District between 2000 and 2019. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models were estimated to forecast monthly hospitalization rates in 2020. RESULTS: A higher incidence of hospitalizations was found for male children, especially under six months of age. As for Brazilian regions, between 2000 and 2019, the South region registered the highest incidence of hospitalizations, followed by the Southeast, Midwest, North and Northeast regions, in this order. Considering the seasonal peak, the period between March and July 2020 comprised the highest expected hospitalization rates. CONCLUSIONS: Palivizumab is suggested to be started between February/March and June/July for most Brazilian states, with the exception of Rio Grande do Sul, which, in addition to presenting the highest rates of hospitalizations for acute viral bronchiolitis per 10,000 live births, has the longest seasonal peak between May and September.

Temporal-spatial analysis of hospitalizations for bronchiolitis in Brazil: prediction of epidemic regions and periods for immunization against the Respiratory Syncytial Virus / Análise temporal-espacial de hospitalizações por bronquiolite no Brasil: previsão das regiões e períodos epidêmicos para imunização contra o vírus sincicial respiratório

Abstract Objective: Due to the high cost and short term of passive immunization against the respiratory syncytial virus, the main virus causing acute viral bronchiolitis, predicting epidemic regions and epidemic months is extremely important. The objective of this study is to identify both the month when the seasonal peak begins and Brazilian regions and states with the highest incidence of monthly hospitalizations due acute viral bronchiolitis. Methods: Based on data obtained from DATASUS, monthly hospitalization rates due acute viral bronchiolitis were calculated for every 10,000 live births to children under 12 months of age in all Brazilian states and the Federal District between 2000 and 2019. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models were estimated to forecast monthly hospitalization rates in 2020. Results: A higher incidence of hospitalizations was found for male children, especially under six months of age. As for Brazilian regions, between 2000 and 2019, the South region registered the highest incidence of hospitalizations, followed by the Southeast, Midwest, North and Northeast regions, in this order. Considering the seasonal peak, the period between March and July 2020 comprised the highest expected hospitalization rates. Conclusions: Palivizumab is suggested to be started between February/March and June/July for most Brazilian states, with the exception of Rio Grande do Sul, which, in addition to presenting the highest rates of hospitalizations for acute viral bronchiolitis per 10,000 live births, has the longest seasonal peak between May and September.

RESUMO Objetivo: Em razão do alto custo e do curto prazo da imunização passiva contra o vírus sincicial respiratório, principal vírus causador de bronquiolite viral aguda, a previsão das regiões e meses epidêmicos é extremamente importante. Objetiva-se identificar o mês de início do pico sazonal e as regiões e Estados brasileiros de maior incidência de hospitalizações mensais por bronquiolite viral aguda. Métodos: Com dados obtidos no Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde do Brasil, foram calculadas as taxas mensais de hospitalizações por bronquiolite viral aguda a cada 10 mil nascidos vivos de crianças com idade inferior a 12 meses, em todos os Estados brasileiros e no Distrito Federal, no período entre 2000 e 2019. Modelos sazonais autorregressivos integrados e de médias móveis foram estimados para a previsão das taxas mensais de hospitalizações em 2020. Resultados: Verificou-se maior incidência de hospitalizações em crianças do sexo masculino, principalmente naquelas com idade inferior a seis meses. Em relação às regiões brasileiras, entre 2000 e 2019, a Região Sul apresentou a maior incidência de hospitalizações, seguida pelas Regiões Sudeste, Centro-Oeste, Norte e Nordeste, respectivamente. Quanto ao pico sazonal, o período entre março e julho de 2020 compreende as maiores taxas de hospitalizações previstas. Conclusões: Sugere-se o início da administração do Palivizumab entre fevereiro/março e junho/julho para a maioria dos Estados brasileiros, com exceção do Rio Grande do Sul, que, além de apresentar as maiores taxas de hospitalizações por bronquiolite viral aguda a cada 10.000 nascidos vivos, possui o pico sazonal de maior duração entre maio e setembro.